Making smoking history for our children - a vision for the future
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Presenter(s)
Professor Robert West Professor of Health Psychology and Director of Tobacco Studies, Cancer Research UK Health Behaviour Research Centre, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London
Abstract
The Coalition Government launched its tobacco control strategy for the next 10 years, ‘Healthy Lives, Healthy People’ in February 2011. It set a national ambition of reducing smoking prevalence to 18.5% by 2015 from the current level of 21.5% which would lead to a reduction of some 8,500 premature deaths per year. There is explicit recognition of the need for a comprehensive strategy to achieve this that builds on the successes of the past 10 years.
This presentation asks: what is a realistic target for smoking prevalence in England over the next 20 years or so and how can this be achieved? It concludes that near zero prevalence (<5%) is achievable by 2030 on current projections; thus for the first time the ‘end game’ is clearly in sight. However achieving this requires maintaining and refreshing a comprehensive approach to tobacco control based on a systematic analysis of smoking and smoking cessation in its current context.
The presentation describes a method of developing behaviour change interventions, the ‘Behaviour Change Wheel’ based on a comprehensive analysis of the necessary conditions for a behavioural target to be achieved. This analysis, together with the available evidence, indicates that of the clinical interventions in the tobacco strategy the greatest impact will be achieved by 1) using smarter incentives and more appropriate training to ensure that GPs raise the rate at which they offer help with quitting to smokers from its current figure of 25% to more than 50%; and 2) ensuring that all Stop-Smoking Services are brought up to the standard of the top 25% and offer what have been shown to been optimum treatment options. Both of these measures involve spending existing resources more effectively rather than increasing expenditure, and economic analysis indicates that they will provide cost savings to the NHS within 5 years.
Source of funding: Robert West undertakes research and consultancy and receives fees for speaking from companies that develop and manufacture smoking cessation medications. He also has a share of a patent for a novel nicotine delivery device. His funding is primarily from Cancer Research UK and the Department of Health. He is a trustee of the stop-smoking charity, QUIT.
